A ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas following extensive negotiations in Egypt, representing a potentially significant development in the context of the ongoing two-year conflict in Gaza. While this arrangement may mark a step toward de-escalation, the durability of the ceasefire remains uncertain.

Trump’s Active Involvement

An important shift in this round of negotiations was the direct intervention of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Unlike previous, more detached approaches, Trump’s active involvement appears to have been instrumental, both in compelling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept terms and in pressuring Hamas. Trump has positioned this agreement as a major diplomatic achievement and has overtly expressed his desire for international recognition, including the Nobel Peace Prize.

Hamas-led Attack in Oct 7, 2023

The origins of the current war can be traced to the events of October 7, 2023, when a Hamas-led attack resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 individuals, predominantly Israeli civilians, and the taking of 251 hostages. Israel’s subsequent military campaign has caused extensive casualties—over 67,000 Palestinians killed, including 18,000 children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. These figures are regarded as credible by both the United Nations and other international organizations. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has deteriorated severely as a result.

Trump, Netanyahu Talks

The peace plan’s initial phase was announced at the White House, with Netanyahu present. Notably, Netanyahu has faced criticism for impeding previous peace initiatives, but Trump’s impatience and assertiveness during these negotiations apparently influenced the outcome. The United States’ forceful diplomatic posture, combined with threats of further action, resulted in both Israeli and Hamas compliance. The agreement has garnered support from Arab and Muslim countries, with Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey playing significant mediating roles.

Key provisions of the agreement include an immediate ceasefire and the release of hostages. It is anticipated that 20 surviving Israeli hostages will be freed by Sunday, and the remains of 28 deceased hostages will be returned sequentially. In exchange, Israel will release several hundred Palestinian prisoners. The deal also stipulates a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from selected areas of Gaza and an enhancement of humanitarian aid deliveries.

International Pressure on Israel

Israel’s failed assassination attempt targeting Hamas leaders during the September Doha talks increased international pressure for a diplomatic resolution. The operation was widely condemned, including by Israel’s allies, and provided an opportunity for the Trump administration to advance negotiations.

Trump’s ‘Nobel’ Dreams

Trump has publicly stated his intention to be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize, describing the agreement as both historic and unprecedented. While this development is undeniably noteworthy, the prospect of lasting peace remains uncertain due to unresolved issues, including the disarmament of Hamas, the future governance of Gaza, and the timeline for Israeli withdrawal.

Paving Way for Gaza Truce

In response to the agreement, public celebrations occurred in Gaza, reflecting the population’s hope for relief from ongoing suffering. Similar gatherings took place in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square. Hamas, recognizing that releasing hostages diminishes its negotiating leverage, has sought assurances from Israel to prevent renewed military action—a concern substantiated by Israel’s violation of a previous ceasefire in March.

Public opinion in Israel indicates considerable fatigue with the ongoing conflict, and there is diminishing support for continued hostilities both domestically and internationally. However, Netanyahu’s political position remains complex, as his government depends on the support of far-right factions that have threatened to withdraw if a deal with Hamas proceeds. This dynamic has led to speculation that he may choose to prolong the conflict. Given the next elections are not scheduled until late October 2026, the prospect of his government collapsing over a peace deal may be less pressing for Netanyahu. He has characterized the agreement as a “diplomatic, national, and moral victory” for Israel, but notably refrained from declaring an end to the war—unlike Hamas. While the agreement represents a significant and potentially transformative step, the long-term resolution of the conflict remains uncertain, with key issues yet to be addressed.