The threat of a strong El Nino hangs over India, and the mood in agriculture is tense. The start of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon has been rough: June’s rainfall fell way short, dashing hopes for a smooth Kharif sowing. That’s forced the Prime Minister’s Office to step in, anxious about the risks to food security and the fear of rising prices. Sure, a short burst of rain in early July helped a few regions catch up, but the bigger problems tied to El Nino haven’t gone away. Less rain, longer dry spells, late monsoons—these patterns threaten the nation’s vital Kharif crops.

Monsoon Mayhem: Regional Rainfall in Focus

June saw a staggering 40% drop in rainfall, making it the fifth-driest June for India in a hundred years. Strengthening El Niño conditions in the Pacific completely threw typical weather off track. The India Meteorological Department’s breakdown only adds to the concern:

- Central India: Got hit hardest, with a 50% rainfall deficit.

- East and Northeast India: 40% below normal.

- Northwest India: 31% under average.

- Southern Peninsula: 27% shortfall.

By the end of June, most districts—over three quarters—reported little to no rain. Early July brought sudden relief thanks to active western disturbances. Central India saw 129% more rain than usual just in that week, and Northwest India got a 16% boost. This helped draw down the overall seasonal deficit to -12% by July 7, but southern and eastern parts are still waiting for substantial rain.

Kharif Crops: A Sowing Crisis

This erratic weather hit Kharif (July to October) crops hard. These crops live and die by the monsoon, making up about half of India’s yearly foodgrain haul. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows Kharif sowing is trailing by roughly 20% compared to last year. By mid-July, only 35 million hectares had been planted, well under the 44.3 million hectares covered by this time last year.

The decline isn’t just in one crop:

- Rice: Down by 0.9 million hectares, now at 6 mha.

- Oilseeds: Took the steepest fall—almost 40%—from 10.9 mha to 6.6 mha.

- Pulses: Planted area dropped from 4.7 mha to 3.7 mha.

The ministry has flagged 111 districts as especially risky, facing both poor rainfall and low irrigation—meaning most farmers there are totally dependent on whatever rain does come.

Food Production and Price Pressures

Delayed planting and a lack of moisture are now threatening the yields of staples such as paddy, maize, soybean, cotton, and key pulses like tur and urad. If history is any guide, past El Niño years saw yields for rice and maize drop more than 10% in many districts. The situation is worse for pulses: production is already dwindling, slipping from 27.3 million tonnes in 2021/22 to an estimated 26 million in 2025/26. Imports have become critical. If Kharif pulse output falls further, prices could swing wildly.

If the El Nino effect intensifies in the weeks ahead and rainfall continues to stall, here’s what’s at stake:

- Crop growth stunted: Late sowing shortens crop cycles and leaves plants weaker against late pests.

- Food inflation: Fewer rice, pulses, and oilseeds mean prices go up—bad news for anyone watching their grocery bills.

- Rural distress: Lower yields mean less money in farm households, hitting overall consumption.

How the Government is responding?

Realizing how serious things have become, the PMO recently called a high-level review. Ministries handling agriculture, consumer affairs, and rural development all checked in on preparedness. The government’s response so far:

- District Contingency Plans: Updated and deployed in 262 worry spots.

- SOPs from ICAR: The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has issued detailed guidelines for managing El Niño risks, to be rolled out by local Krishi Vigyan Kendras.

- Shifts in Farming Practice: Farmers are being urged to grow shorter-duration crops and to hang onto soil moisture—less tillage, more crop residue.

- Buffer Stocks and Imports: The Department of Consumer Affairs is keeping a close eye on food prices and is shoring up buffer stocks of rice, wheat, and pulses. On top of that, the government extended free imports of key pulses until March 2027.

- Livelihood Support: Seeing trouble ahead, authorities are increasing employment through the rural jobs scheme (MGNREGA), generating over 10 million person-days of work since July began.

- Fodder and Water: State governments are being pressed to protect livestock with enough fodder and drinking water, especially in the driest districts.

As India enters the crucial stretch of August and September, the real test will be how the rains play out—where, and how much. For now, everyone from the government to village farmers remains in a state of high alert, determined to salvage this season with rapid action and climate-smart strategies.