A trending topic in superpower America is “Rice Scarcity”. Rice may not have been the staple diet of the whites, but the shortage of rice was a big shock to the Asians living there, especially the Indians.
On July 20, our country banned the export of all types of fine and thin White rice except Basmati and boiled varieties. Within minutes of this announcement, a mad rush started in US supermarkets. Due to panic buying, all the stocks of rice in the malls are gone empty. Diaspora Indians are buying dozens of rice bags and stocking up. Huge queues formed near the Indian or Asian grocery shops and shopping malls. Most of the “mad rushers” are Indians, some are other Asians. The conspiratorial tendency of the traders there who import rice from our country is also the reason for this “human made shortage”.
As the news that Basmati variety of rice will soon be banned has gone viral on social media, the restaurant owners are cautiously blocking bags of Basmati rice. When all the costumers rushed for rice, the traders also increased the prices. An important point should be mentioned here.
Panic Buying – “Rice Crisis”:
India's embargo was not the main reason behind the doubling of rice prices in the US. Only because of panic buying, the demand for the rice is increasing and there is a shortage in the market. The black market tendencies of the traders also seem to be the reason for the shortage of rice.
It is estimated that within ten days of India's ban on rice exports, the price of rice in the United States has increased by at least 20 percent. Previously, a 10 kg bag of rice was 18 dollars. Now it has increased from 40 to 50 dollars. It seems that the demand for rice in London, Australia, Canada and other European countries likely to be increased tremendously just like America. Experts say that due to this ban, countries like Africa, Turkey, Syria and Pakistan will have shortage of rice in the near future.
Bharat is a “Rice Bowl” of the world. As an agricultural country it is providing food grains to many countries. That is why it has become the largest grain exporter in the world. India's share in global rice trade is 44 percent.
According to the statistics of 2022, about 17.86 million tons of non-basmati rice was exported from India to many countries of the world. So far the story is one side of a coin. The second side is raising many questions. The main question is why our government imposed a ban on exports when it is a major exporter?.
Chasing Monsters – El Nino:
There are two main reasons behind the rice exports ban. One is - El Nino, which is looming world-wide in the current rainy season. Experts already predicted that, El Nino could impact the world's weather. Many countries likely to experience severe impacts, including heavy or shortage of rainfall and potential flash flooding. It will lead to global economic losses of 3 trillion dollars. Not only India, many of other countries should prepare for its "negative" impact. Heads of the countries worried about the potential impact of El Nino and they are looking towards India. Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr suggested his government to boost its rice stocks and seek a supply deal with India.
As we look in present season, Monsoon likely to enter weak phase as El Nino turns stronger. As a result of this, rains have been delayed in many states this Kharif season. Due to its negative impact, paddy sowing has not yet started. There is a risk of reduced yields due to late harvests. As a result, there will be shortage of grain in the markets of our country next year. This will increase the demand. Also there is a risk that the prices will increase.
In the hands of Rain God:
And the second reason - heavy rains in some northern states last season caused damage. Due to this many crops including grain were damaged. Rice yield also decreased. Also, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, which produce a lot of paddy, had heavy-rainy conditions last season. Due to this, the agriculture produce expectations have also come down. Due to these natural calamities, grain shortage will increase in our country in the coming days. There is also a risk that the prices will increase due to the shortage of food grains in the market that are suitable for the demand. Therefore, the Narendra Modi government imposed a ban on rice exports, keeping in mind that our people are first priority than the revenue from exports.
Rising prices a looming threat:
According to experts, restrictions on Basmati rice are necessary if the situation demands. If there is any lagging in this matter, there is a danger that the prices of rice and other essential commodities in the country will increase by the time of 2024 general elections. Apart from this, the free rice distribution scheme will be hampered. That effect will definitely affect the elections. That is why the NDA government bans the exports as an immediate step to face potential El Nino.
“Public First” is the policy:
There are also losses due to the ban on rice exports. Our country will lose a lot of foreign exchange. It is also a loss to the paddy farmers & rice exporters also. Among the rice growing states, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are gaining importance in thin rice cultivation. If exports stop, the farmers of these states will have to sell their grain in the local markets only. This will reduce the profits. In northern states like Punjab and Haryana, Basmati type of rice is mostly cultivated. Hence there is no immediate threat to those states with the current export ban. If there are any restrictions on basmati rice in the future, there will be some difficulties.
On any account, some losses due to the ban cannot be avoided. But the Modi government has focused more on the hardships faced by the common people. Ban on rice exports is a result of an early sense of the looming shortage of rice in the coming days. Alerted before rice shortages arise. Restrictions on rice exports came as part of the preventive measures. The ban on the export of thin rice is part of the idea of keeping the poor and middle class people away from starving due to rising prices