The upcoming by-election in the Jubilee Hills Assembly constituency (Polling on November 11/Results on November 14) has swiftly evolved into a significant contest for political prestige and influence within Hyderabad. The election is now a triangular contest featuring the ruling Congress, the opposition BRS, and the BJP. This by-poll, necessitated by the passing of BRS MLA Maganti Gopinath, is widely viewed as a crucial indicator of urban voter sentiment ahead of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections.
Constituency Demographics & Dynamics
Jubilee Hills is among Hyderabad’s most densely populated and politically intricate constituencies. It is characterized by affluent areas such as Jubilee Hills and Srinagar Colony, alongside large slum settlements like Borabanda and Rahmat Nagar. The electorate numbers approximately 3.99 lakh, based on the final electoral roll published in September 2025. Notably, this constituency is one of the few in Telangana where male voters (2.07 lakh) outnumber female voters (1.91 lakh).
The social composition of the constituency is particularly relevant. According to the 2011 Census, Scheduled Castes (SC) constitutes about 5.93% of the population, with a significant presence in Borabanda and Erragadda. These areas are significant for BRS and Congress outreach. Scheduled Tribes (ST) represents a smaller proportion, around 1.4%. However, the most influential groups are the Backward Classes (BC)—including Yadavs and Mudiraj—and the Minority (Muslim) communities. The BC community forms the largest voting bloc, which is why Congress is fielding a BC candidate. Meanwhile, the Minority vote is concentrated in divisions such as Rahmat Nagar, Yousufguda and Shaikpet, making AIMIM’s role quite significant.
Political Influence across Key Divisions
The Seven GHMC divisions associated with Jubilee Hills—such as Borabanda, Erragadda, Rahmat Nagar, Shaikpet, Srinagar Colony, Vengalrao Nagar, and Yousufguda—reflect diverse political leanings.
AIMIM’s Influence: Divisions like Shaikpet and Rahmat Nagar have long demonstrated support for AIMIM. In the 2023 Assembly election, AIMIM secured a 4.28% vote share, which was sufficient to affect the BRS-Congress margin. Their current inclination to support Congress remains pivotal.
BRS/BC Strongholds: Vengalrao Nagar and Yousufguda have historically favoured BRS, largely due to the party’s organizational presence and outreach among Backward Classes. Areas like Jubilee Hills (Business, political and cinema industry celebrities are residing here) and Srinagar Colony consistently register lower voter turnout, but the electorate here is generally receptive to BJP’s national rhetoric and the Congress party’s developmental agenda.
Dominant Public Issues and Narratives
Key local issues, along with state-level political narratives, are shaping the contest.
Local Infrastructure and Sanitation: Low-income areas such as Borabanda and Erragadda continue to face challenges related to sanitation, water supply, and road conditions. These issues stand in stark contrast to the well-developed infrastructure seen in Jubilee Hills.
Congress’s Governance Promises: The Congress campaign is centered on the expedited implementation of its six guarantees, such as free bus travel for women and complimentary 200 units of electricity. Their slogan emphasizes that only the ruling party can secure development and funds.
BRS’s Critique: The opposition BRS is emphasizing the Congress government’s alleged shortcomings in delivering on promises, notably loan waivers for farmers and job notifications. This narrative seeks to leverage public dissatisfaction.
Congress’s Electoral Strategy Is “BC Card”
Congress aims to solidify its position as the ruling party, attract local BRS corporators (via “Operation Akarsh”), and benefit from a strategic BC/Minority alliance. By nominating V. Naveen Yadav, a member of the Backward Classes, Congress intends to consolidate BC votes and, with probable AIMIM support, also secure the Minority vote. However, Congress faces the challenge of its lackluster performance in urban Hyderabad, having failed to win any GHMC seat in the 2023 Assembly polls.
BRS Hope on Sympathy Factor
BRS is relying on the sympathy generated by the late MLA Maganti Gopinath’s passing. The party has nominated Maganti Sunitha, his widow, who is from the politically influential Kamma (General) caste. BRS is combining this emotional appeal with its record of development during its decade in power. The BRS currently faces significant challenges, as several of its local corporators have already defected to Congress, and the party continues to grapple with the anti-incumbency sentiment that led to its defeat in the recent state election. A victory in this context has become crucial for the BRS to demonstrate its continued relevance within urban Telangana.
BJP’s “Modi Mantra”
The key player is the BJP. State party team is actively promoting its “Modi Mantra,” seeking to consolidate its national electoral gains, including its success in the Secunderabad Lok Sabha seat (which encompasses Jubilee Hills), and to appeal to urban, middle-class voters who may be increasingly disillusioned with regional parties. The BJP’s strategy is to establish itself as the primary opposition to Congress, thereby displacing the BRS.
The party is currently in the process of shortlisting candidates, with individuals such as Lankala Deepak Reddy (the 2023 candidate), Atluri Ramakrishna, Juturu Keerthi Reddy, Akula Vijaya, Padma, Madhavi Latha, and former MLA Ramchander Reddy under consideration. The BJP’s campaign will emphasize Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development agenda and the importance of a robust national presence. Nevertheless, despite a strong showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote share in the 2023 Assembly election stood at only 14.11%, positioning it as the underdog in this three-way contest.
Decisive Factors Are…
The decisive factors in this electoral contest are particularly noteworthy. Jubilee Hills has a well-documented history of electoral volatility, having shifted from Congress in 2009, to TDP in 2014, and to BRS in both 2018 and 2023. In 2023, BRS secured the seat with a margin of 16,337 votes over Congress. The outcome of the upcoming 2025 by-poll will depend primarily on two factors:
First, the AIMIM vote transfer: Should the influential Minority vote bloc decisively align with Congress, the ruling party’s prospects for victory will be significantly enhanced.
Second, the so-called “sympathy test”: The extent to which the BRS candidate, Maganti Sunitha, can leverage any residual sympathy or goodwill to counter the considerable appeal of Congress’s welfare schemes will likely prove to be the ultimate deciding factor in this prominent urban contest.
TDP's Shadow Strategy and the Kamma Factor
Despite the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) currently holding only minimal formal hold in Telangana, its influence in the Jubilee Hills by-election remains significant due to historical ties and the intricate dynamics of caste-based politics in the region. Recently, TDP chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu convened meetings with Telangana TDP leaders to outline the party’s strategy for the Jubilee Hills bypoll. Given the current political context, TDP is unlikely to participate directly. Instead, its approach appears to involve mobilizing its cadre and support base in favour of whichever opposition party is best positioned to challenge the BRS, or, in some scenarios, even aligning with the ruling Congress to maintain relevance. Considering TDP’s alliance with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, its stance and the direction of its support in Telangana represent a critical variable that could potentially alter the electoral outcome. Should TDP, whether officially or tacitly, encourage its base to support the BRS candidate—driven by either communal affiliations or strategic interest—this could significantly strengthen BRS’s prospects, particularly in a closely contested contest.
It is important to note that the bypoll was necessitated by the passing of Maganti Gopinath, who initially secured the Jubilee Hills seat in 2014 as a TDP candidate before later defecting to the BRS (formerly TRS). Consequently, the BRS candidate, Maganti Sunitha Gopinath (his widow), benefits from the organizational foundation originally established by the TDP. Moreover, she is a member of the Kamma community, a socially and economically influential forward caste with a strong presence in Jubilee Hills, especially among settled Andhra residents. The late Maganti Gopinath’s electoral success was in part due to his effective consolidation of the Kamma vote, which was historically linked to TDP’s support in the region. By nominating Maganti Sunitha, BRS seeks to harness both the sympathy factor and to solidify the Kamma vote as a cohesive bloc.
While Backward Classes and Minorities constitute the largest electoral groups in the constituency, the Kamma community (together with other General Category voters) is highly mobilized and resourceful. Their unified support is likely to be crucial in determining the outcome of this urban seat, where electoral margins are often shaped by relatively minor shifts within key demographic segments.
