The recent electoral loss in Haryana has prompted the Congress party to reconsider its approach in Kerala, where it aims to unseat the two-term Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Despite strong hopes following the party's success in Kerala during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and its national performance, the defeat in Haryana has served as a wake-up call for Congress leaders, who now recognize that favorable political conditions alone may not guarantee victory.
The Congress, as part of the United Democratic Front (UDF), has been relying heavily on anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF in Kerala, hoping to replicate its recent Lok Sabha success in the upcoming local body and assembly elections. The party has been working to consolidate support among the state’s Christian and Muslim minorities, key voter bases that had shifted in their favor during the 2024 elections.
However, the lessons from Haryana have caused Congress leaders to rethink their reliance on the anti-incumbency factor. Senior party figures like Ramesh Chennithala, a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC), have voiced concerns about overconfidence. Speaking from Maharashtra, where he is helping with election preparations, Chennithala warned that favorable conditions alone do not guarantee electoral success. “Overconfidence is dangerous,” he said, adding that effective electioneering requires more than just banking on political dissatisfaction with the ruling government.
Within the Kerala Congress, a section of leaders has also expressed concern about the parallels between the party’s strategy in Kerala and the one that failed in Haryana. They argue that waiting to capitalize on anti-incumbency, without addressing substantial issues, might not be enough to sway voters. A Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) executive member noted that merely attacking the character of a popular leader, like Vijayan, will not resonate with the electorate. The Congress-UDF’s failure to mobilize around any significant issue after the K-Rail protest, which had garnered wide public support, is seen as a missed opportunity.
Veteran Congress leader K C Joseph echoed these concerns, emphasizing the need for fresh strategies. He highlighted the unpredictability of elections, citing the party's victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, followed by a resounding loss in the 2021 assembly elections.
With local body elections and assembly polls approaching in quick succession, the Congress must now focus on strengthening its grassroots presence. However, leaders admit that groundwork at the local level has been slow to take shape, leaving the party with much to do if it hopes to challenge the LDF effectively.
