As the Tamil Nadu assembly elections are approaching, political realignments are rapidly taking place in the state. However, currently, everyone's attention is drawn to the newly formed Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) by film star Thalapathy Vijay. It is well known that Dravidian politics are strong in Tamil Nadu. In this context, the main question is how TVK, led by Vijay, will be able to face and survive against the Dravidian parties like DMK and AIADMK. However, Thalapathy has already started implementing his strategies for the upcoming elections. It is understood that he will begin his state tour from the most backward Vrudhachalam constituency in August. The stand of Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) parties, which are currently facing a severe crisis, is also likely to become clear by August. PMK has good strength among the Vanniyar OBC community. DMDK, founded by the late film actor Vijayakanth, continues to have a strong hold in some rural areas. Currently, TVK is primarily focusing on the votes of Dalit and OBC communities in rural and semi-urban areas.
Dissatisfaction of PMK and DMDK
Premalatha, who is currently leading DMDK, is deeply dissatisfied with AIDMK. She is angry with AIDMK leader Palaniswami for not keeping their promise regarding seat allocation. As for PMK, there is a strong disagreement between its founder Ramadas and the current party president Anbumani Ramadas.
While Ramadas wants to negotiate directly with AIDMK, Anbumani Ramadas is currently acting in favour of BJP as he is a central minister. This is the reason for the differences between them. These differences are causing dissatisfaction within the party. This party has a strong influence in ten districts of North Tamil Nadu. If this dissatisfaction leads them to lean towards PMK, it will harm not only AIDMK but also DMK. This is because Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which is part of the DMK alliance, has good strength among Dalits in this region. It is not impossible that these votes might also split due to the influence of the above two parties and go into TVK's account. Vijay, who is a Christian, will primarily focus on Vanniyars (OBCs), Dalits, fishermen, and Christian communities in his tour starting from Vrudhachalam in August. Earlier, Vrudhachalam was a stronghold of DMDK. DMDK and PMK are currently allied with AIDMK. Currently, Vijay is likely to adopt 'TV' as his party symbol. In this context, he might go forward with the slogan 'Vote for TV-K'. Moreover, 'TV' is easy for people to remember without any difficulty. Currently, there are differing opinions on how to interpret the large number of people attending Vijay's rallies. While some argue that this is a positive development for TVK, others say that popularity is different from it converting into votes. There are also pessimists who predict that just like a party started by a star hero like Vijayakanth did not succeed, Vijay's party will also follow the same path. Ultimately, it is clear that if Vijay can gain ten percent of the votes with his charisma, DMK will be in deep trouble.
Vijay Getting Youth Support
Observing the current situation, it appears that Thalapathy is gaining ground among the youth, economically disadvantaged classes, and particularly among minorities. These communities are traditionally supporters of DMK. These communities have started considering Thalapathy not just as a film star, but as a leader with some leadership qualities. Initially, after Vijay founded TVK, political pundits did not pay much attention to it. But now, TVK is estimated to gain 5 to 6 percent of the votes. In comparison, Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), founded by Kamal, secured only 2.52 percent of the votes in 2021. This means TVK is far ahead!
Moreover, estimates have also begun that he can split 2-3% of votes from other parties. Given the possibility of him gaining 5% of votes on his own, the overall estimate of those observing Tamil Nadu politics is that he can gain a maximum of 8% of votes. However, there are also critics who say that Vijay will run 'work from home' politics. Meanwhile, as elections approach, these estimates are bound to change. This is because Vijay is primarily focusing his politics on Dalits, economically backward classes, and labourers. This can be attributed to the changing mindset of people from various communities rather than just a split in votes. And these communities are the backbone of the DMK!
Caste Politics
It is well known that the influence of caste politics is high in Tamil Nadu! Caste loyalty and poverty are like a paradox. This is because poor people are present in all communities. However, their number is higher among Dalits. OBC communities like Vanniyars, Gounders, and Thevars are now of the opinion that Dalits are fully supporting Vijay. These OBCs and Dalits do not get along at all. Currently, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has strength among Vanniyars. Similarly, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) has the support of the Paraiyar community among Dalits. While these two parties are not against DMK and AIDMK, it is not possible for them to be in the same alliance. Even though Vanniyars are currently fans of Vijay, due to the overwhelming support of Dalits for TVK, they will favour PMK and not lean towards Thalapathy.
Future of AIDMK-BJP Alliance
Given the complex OBC calculations, the chances of this working in favour of the AIDMK-BJP alliance are high. The Kongu Vellalar Gounders in Western Tamil Nadu have always been favourable to AIDMK. This is because AIDMK leader Edappadi Palaniswami belongs to this caste! It is noteworthy that PMK, which has strong support from Vanniyars in North Tamil Nadu, is now looking towards the AIDMK-BJP alliance. Thevars have a strong presence in the Southern and Delta regions. Panneerselvam, who was expelled from AIDMK in the past, and the current TTV leader Dinakaran, belong to this community. Both of them have chances of returning to the AIDMK-BJP alliance. Moreover, the current state BJP president, Nayinar Nagendran, belongs to the Thevar community. If Panneerselvam and Dinakaran join the NDA alliance, then the alliance will have undisputed support from the Thevar community.
As for the BJP, since it is based on ideology and not caste, there will be no change in its existing vote percentage. This is because its supporters are based on ideological principles. Therefore, Vijay's impact will not be as significant on BJP as it will be on other parties. The party that will be most affected by Vijay is Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), which fights for more freedom for Tamil Nadu. Youth, who are primarily anti-establishment, are members of this party. All of them may now change their opinion in favor of Vijay. As for the ruling DMK party, changes in voter opinions in one or two constituencies will not have an impact. Looking at the state as a whole, the real danger for DMK lies in constituencies where it lost by a narrow margin. For example, in 2021, the AIDMK candidate in the Kuvandampalayam constituency won by a majority of 9,776 votes. What is surprising is that Kamal Haasan's party MNM got 23,527 votes, and NTK party got 17,897 votes here. And if the votes of these two parties are combined, it is more than the majority votes received by AIDMK. In the same constituency, if we look at the individual party vote percentage, MNM party got 18% of the votes. Compared to the vote percentage in the 2016 elections, 6% of the votes were split from DMK. It is noteworthy that DMK won this constituency by a 3% vote difference in those elections!
Similarly, if TVK, led by Thalapathy, gains ten percent of the total votes in the upcoming elections, it will be very difficult for DMK to come back to power.
DMK is unmatched in votebank politics and forming alliances. It is also adept at manipulating caste politics to its advantage! In this context, with Thalapathy's party entering the fray, it remains to be seen how effective DMK's current strategies will be. The current situation in Tamil politics reveals one truth. Vijay, a new leader who is unfamiliar with the traditional strategies and moves in Tamil politics, has made his political debut. If charisma turns into votes, all strategies and moves will be swept away in a tsunami, and a new political era can begin in the state.
