Monsoon Forecast: Below- Normal Rains and Lingering Heatwaves

India, a land of diverse climates and monsoons, is currently grappling with an unusual weather pattern. IMD has revised its monsoon forecast for June, signaling below-normal rains.
Monsoon Forecast: Below- Normal Rains and Lingering Heatwaves

India, a land of diverse climates and monsoons, is currently grappling with an unusual weather pattern. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast for June, signaling below-normal rains. This adjustment comes after the southwest monsoon, responsible for 70% of India’s annual rainfall, slowed down its advance.

Here are the key points:

  1. Rainfall Deficit:

    • The IMD predicts that June’s rainfall will likely be less than 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 167 mm.

    • This deficiency in rains exacerbates the oppressive heatwaves that have already claimed lives across the country.

    • Maximum temperatures in northwest India hover around 44-46°C, with warm nights adding to the discomfort.

  2. Monsoon Stagnation:

    • Despite an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern states on May 30, the southwest monsoon has stalled.

    • By June 12, it had covered most of the southern peninsula and northeastern states, but it turned sluggish afterward.

    • Currently, the monsoon’s northern limit passes through Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal.

  3. Delayed Progress:

    • The monsoon is yet to advance over Bihar and Jharkhand and cover Odisha and West Bengal.

    • Eastern states have been hit hard by unusually long heatwaves since April.

    • Normally, Kolkata (West Bengal), Gaya (Bihar), and Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) should have experienced monsoon rains by now.

  4. Rainfall Disparity:

    • As of June 18, India has received only 64.5 mm of rain, 20% less than the LPA of 80.6 mm.

    • Northwest India faces the maximum shortfall, nearly 70% below average.

    • Central India and the eastern and northeastern states also grapple with deficits.

  5. Southern Peninsula Exception:

    • The southern peninsula has received 16% excess rains due to the monsoon’s full swing since its onset over Kerala.

    • Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Goa, Pondicherry, and parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have already witnessed seasonal rains.

  6. Monsoon’s Pace and Heatwaves:

    • The sluggish monsoon raises concerns about its timely advance over northwest India.

    • Conditions are expected to favor monsoon progress over the next few days.

    • Heatwave intensity may reduce after June 19 due to thunderstorm activity, but temperatures are likely to rise again after June 23.

In summary, India faces a delicate balance between deficient monsoon rains and scorching heatwaves. As farmers prepare their fields for summer crops, the nation eagerly awaits the monsoon’s timely arrival to alleviate the oppressive weather conditions.


logo
NewsCrunch
news-crunch.com