Amid a complex geopolitical landscape, U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated a dual-pronged approach concerning India and China. While he publicly announced that trade negotiations with India are back on track, expressing confidence in a successful outcome with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his administration is simultaneously lobbying the European Union to impose steep 100% tariffs on goods from both India and China. This move is part of a larger strategy to economically pressure Russia over the war in Ukraine, as both Asian nations continue to be major buyers of Russian oil. The U.S. has already implemented a 50% tariff on Indian goods, citing its oil purchases and other trade barriers, but the latest developments suggest a potential shift towards diplomacy and cooperation, even while maintaining a tough stance on countries it sees as indirectly supporting Russia's economy.
Tension in Undocumented Immigrants
The United States is stepping up efforts to deport undocumented immigrants and is focusing on unauthorized earnings by H-1B and F-1 visa holders. Authorities are collecting information about past and present illegal income and sharing it with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Plans are in place to expel those people involved in such activities, which raises concerns for Indian nationals who may experience significant challenges.
At US embassies and ports of entry, H-1B visa holders are facing intense questioning. Background checks are being conducted on individuals with traffic violations, and information is being sent to higher authorities. Even details of part-time jobs from years ago are being examined and reported.
Why Ukrainian President Zelensky Supports Trump?
At the same time, the Trump administration has decided to impose secondary tariffs on countries that continue to buy oil from Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has backed Trump’s actions, suggesting that further restrictions on India would be justifiable. This happens against the backdrop of Russia’s recent major attacks on Ukraine, which prompted Zelensky’s support.
Experts caution that Trump’s mindset brings more ideas, and if these ideas are put into action, the situation for Indians in the US may become significantly worse. Although these policies aim to increase American revenue, they threaten the lives of those who have lived and worked in the US for many years. Similarly, there are inquiries into students who study while working part-time. The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) department is gathering financial information about immigrants. To avoid the risk of deportation, individuals are advised to stop unauthorized work or seek legal advice.
Visa Troubles for India Students…
The US has implemented a new rule requiring non-immigrant visa applicants to apply from their home countries. This could create challenges for Indian workers and businesspeople, with the rule taking effect immediately. Visa processing times might increase; currently, in Hyderabad, interviews for B-1 and B-2 visas take three to four months.
Due to visa difficulties in the US, students are looking at other countries. Many Indian students are now applying to schools/colleges/universities in Germany.
In light of Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine, Trump believes it is crucial to stop all Russian oil purchases and weaken Russia's economy to deter aggression. He has expressed strong anger over the recent attacks. If secondary sanctions are enforced, India may face additional tariffs. A federal court recently objected to Trump’s use of special powers to impose tariffs on various countries, and the government is considering appealing to the Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, refunds of collected tariffs may be necessary, which could heavily burden the treasury. However, the federal court has paused its orders until the 14th of next month. It clarified that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president such special powers. Since tariffs were put in place, the Trump administration has collected over half of $180 billion. Domestic tax collections are reportedly weak due to rising public discontent with these policies.
If the Supreme Court hearing drags into next year and leads to an un-favourable ruling, the US government might need to refund up to one trillion dollars. This could worsen America’s economic situation, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. Similar issues remain regarding amounts other countries owe to the US, leading to unprecedented financial challenges due to Trump’s policies.
Latest Developments on US Tariffs Targeting India
As of September 2025, the Trump administration has intensified secondary sanctions against India for continuing to import Russian oil while pressing Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. In early August, the US imposed an initial 25% tariff on most imports from India, effective from August 7 or 27, depending on shipment dates, as a direct response to India's significant role in buying and refining Russian crude. This was followed by an additional 25% increase on August 27, bringing the total to 50%, which is among the highest tariffs the US has imposed on any country. This threatens up to $48 billion in Indian exports and strains bilateral relations. These measures originate from an Executive Order issued on August 6, citing India’s imports as a way to support Russia’s war economy.
Despite the tariffs, India’s Finance Minister has stated that the country will continue to purchase Russian oil to meet its energy requirements, rejecting US pressure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has responded optimistically, labelling India and the US as "close friends and natural partners" and expressing confidence in future trade talks to resolve the issue. Trump, however, has signalled a willingness to enter a "second phase" of sanctions against countries buying Russian oil, potentially imposing tariffs of up to 100% and calling for the EU to target nations like India and China. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has warned that joint actions from the US and EU could "collapse" Russia’s economy but also pointed out the risks of massive refunds if courts rule against the tariffs.
Legal Challenges for Donald Trump
Legally, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7-4 on August 29 that Trump exceeded his authority under the IEEPA by imposing these extensive tariffs, overstepping Congress’s powers. The Supreme Court agreed on September 9 to fast-track the case this fall, allowing tariffs to stay in place until a decision is made. An unfavourable ruling could force refunds of hundreds of billions, worsening fiscal pressure, as Besant has noted.
In 2025, the US has increased immigration enforcement. USCIS has started removal proceedings against over 26,000 people since February and revoked 6,000 student visas as part of a larger crackdown on unauthorized work and overstays. H-1B and F-1 visa holders are under increased scrutiny, and there may be moves to end Optional Practical Training (OPT) programs and issue Notices to Appear (NTA) for violations. Amid internal Republican debates about H-1B visas, companies sponsoring them are facing greater audits, although some have seen increased sponsorships despite the pressure. CBP, ICE, and USCIS are stepping up efforts following security incidents, focusing on visa overstays and illegal employment. These policies align with Trump’s "Day 1" promises for broad immigration reform.
These developments highlight the interconnected issues of trade, energy security, and immigration, with India at the center of US efforts to economically isolate Russia while tightening domestic borders.
