India is emerging as the most important player in Southeast Asia. India has diplomatically maintained good relations with the USA, UK, Russia, Japan, Germany, AU, EU and its best friend, Israel. However, our relations with our neighbours have been sweet and salty lately.
India has 2 major nuclear powers right next to its borders. One is a crippling economy and one is the major rival of the USA in this century. India had 4 major wars with Pakistan, first in 1947, then in 1965, followed by 1971 and the last in 1999.
India has been preparing itself for a two-front war for many years. In the 1965 Indo-Pak war, the Indian Army made sure that they had enough troops on the Chinese border in case of any tensions on the eastern front, and India won the war. Then in the 1971 Indo-Pak war, India used its secret tool- the Himalayas and waited for a few months to formally enter the war. They did in the month of December when the Indo-China border was filled with snow. This made sure that there was no intervention from the Chinese side. But everything apart, are we ready for a 2.5-front war? What is the .5th front and how to tackle it?
The .5th Front
In June 2017, Genera Bipin Rawat coined the term “2.5 front war” and named the internal conflicts as the .5th term. We saw what happened with Israel. Hamas’ terrorists fired 5000 missiles into Israel killing so many people. And Hamas is backed by Iran. Similarly, Pakistan is backing the separatist militant groups in Kashmir and the Khalistani outfits in Punjab.
China on the other hand has supported many tribal militant organizations such as the United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent) ULFA - I, Kuki National Army (KNA), Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) and All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). China has also supported the Naxalite Movement in central India.
Also, how can we forget the relations between Pakistan and its sole bread earner China? Pakistan has already gifted the Shaksgam Valley to them long ago. Also, China’s most ambitious project CPEC passes through POK and then through Pakistan. China is also helping Pakistan to strengthen its military presence on India’s western front. The Pakistani Air Force recently received the JF 17 Thunder jets and Submarines. Such is the relationship of Pakistan and China.
Both of these countries will use all their might if we ever get into a military conflict on a 2.5-front war. But If this happens, is our Military ready for such a confrontation?
Are We Ready?
To have leverage in case of war, military experts suggest that India should be offensive on the Pakistani Front. This is because India has fought 4 wars with Pakistan and has won all 4 of them. Therefore, they have better experience in fighting on the Pakistan Border.
On the other hand, India should be defensive on the Chinese front and prevent territory loss. It would be very difficult to mobilise troops and ammunition from one border to another. This is because of the vast landmass between the two borders. For the Internal skirmishes, the Paramilitary Forces and the State Police must be put to use.
As far as our military strength is concerned, The Indian Army is a strong force of 1.2 million brave men which are divided into 32 divisions and 14 Corps. This force is great for any one front but to contest on both the fronts together, the Indian Army needs at least 43 divisions. India would require at least 60 days worth of immediate ammunition in case of a war but right now, it has just 10 days worth of ammunition.
The Indian Air Force also needs a few additions. Right now, the IAF has 42 squadrons however, they need at least 60 squadrons to counter both sides. But, the alarming part is, that after the retirement of the MIG 21 and Mirage 2000 Squadrons, India would be left with just 30 squadrons. Although India is already working on projects like Tejas and AMCA, they need to fast-track the work.
India will have the upper hand in the Indian Ocean as we have 2 aircraft careers INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya along with 18 submarines. India can use its navy to dominate Pakistan in the Indian Ocean and cut off important supplies through a naval blockade. China may use its base in Gwadar, Pakistan against India but India also has a naval base just 72 Km away in Chabahar, Iran. India can also use its Nicobar joint base against the Chinese navy coming from the Strait of Malacca.
India lags behind China in AI, Drone warfare, and Cyber and Electronic Warfare. The Armed forces need both quantitative and qualitative makeovers. One main reason why the armed forces are unable to get a good upgrade is because of the tight defence budget. A large part of the annual budget goes into Pensions and Foreign Procurement of Ammunition and defence equipment.
As far as the .5th Front is concerned, the Indian intelligence agencies like IB, RAW, CBI, and NIA along with the paramilitary and local police must take care of the situation and try to solve this issue peacefully and by using politics.
Experts suggest the use of Nuclear Bombs in case of grave existential threat. It should be used as a last resort. If tensions escalate and war seems inevitable, then India should try to attack first. It will further push the enemies back.
Will Diplomacy Help?
Global Diplomacy will play an important role in such a situation. India can hold on to the Chinese and push back the Pakistani military for some days until foreign aid arrives. India’s old friend Russia may be tilted towards China or would prefer to be neutral. This would be done to protect their economic interests in China.
We will get external support from the USA, Japan, AU and EU. India can diplomatically prevent South East Asia and the Middle East from entering the war. Therefore, easier game against its enemies.
Conclusion
India has been through a lot of changes in the last decade. From a government that was corrupt and had scam allegations every day to a government that is working for the betterment of the people and the country in return. Although the budget of the Defense Forces is less, it has grown rapidly in the last few years. Many reforms have also been induced in the Army for better financial management.
India has one strength that neither Pakistan nor the Chinese Army has. This strength is Motivation and Nationalism. Indian army is much Stronger and Fierce than their Chinese and Pakistani counterparts. Therefore, India definitely needs to improve its Military but even at such numbers, India’s global image can help it win the war.
