The CPI(M) is grappling with the unexpected setback in the Nilambur by-election, which many within the party see as a major warning ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The loss came despite a high-stakes campaign led by top leaders, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself. The significance of the bypoll grew after AICC General Secretary K.C. Venugopal proclaimed that Nilambur would mark the beginning of the end for the LDF government. Adding to the heat, former MLA PV Anwar provocatively declared that the political battle against “Pinarayi and Marumonism” would begin from Nilambur.
Initially, the CPI(M) considered backing another independent candidate, assuming a loss would have limited political consequences. However, once the leadership realised the symbolic and strategic importance of the bypoll, they fielded M. Swaraj, a local leader and party secretariat member, expecting a comfortable win.
The decision seemed sound at first. Swaraj, known locally, was expected to consolidate party votes. Meanwhile, PV Anwar had not yet confirmed his candidacy, and party leaders believed that if he entered the fray as an independent, he would split UDF votes to the LDF’s advantage. But this calculation proved entirely flawed.
Post-election reviews initially predicted Swaraj would win by a margin of around 1,800 votes. Instead, UDF candidate Aryadan Shaukat secured a stunning victory with a majority of 11,077 votes. PV Anwar, dismissed by the CPI(M) as inconsequential, garnered 19,760 votes — a number that significantly dented the LDF’s base. Swaraj, running on the official CPI(M) symbol, managed 66,660 votes.
The results have deeply concerned party leaders, particularly as Swaraj was considered one of their prominent faces. The CPI(M)'s inability to counter PV Anwar’s influence or overcome growing anti-incumbency sentiments has led to serious introspection. The question now being asked within the party is whether Anwar’s claims about Nilambur marking the beginning of CPI(M)’s decline might hold some truth.
Internal discussions also focus on whether CPI(M) State Secretary MV Govindan’s controversial remarks about historical RSS-CPIM ties contributed to the backlash. With rising discontent across the Malappuram district, party leaders worry that the Nilambur result may trigger similar defeats in the upcoming local body elections.
The LDF’s losses in seven panchayats — including Nilambur municipality — have only amplified concerns. Aryadan Shaukat secured a 3,000-vote lead in the municipality alone. Declines in support were noted even in Pothukallu, M. Swaraj’s hometown, intensifying the party’s anxieties.
Multiple local grievances, including ongoing wildlife threats, crumbling road infrastructure, perceived neglect of Malappuram, and the CM’s controversial participation in a Vellappally Natesan felicitation, are believed to have played a role in the outcome.
The CPI(M) state secretariat and state committee are now set to conduct a comprehensive post-mortem of the bypoll defeat. With just ten months to go before the Assembly elections, Nilambur may indeed be a turning point — one that forces the party to recalibrate its strategies.