Rejecting claims of anti-incumbency, the CPM and CPI — key constituents of the LDF — attributed their poor performance in the Kerala local body polls to minority vote consolidation in favour of the UDF and selective cross-voting.
Based on initial feedback from district units, the CPM state secretariat concluded that the Christian community moved away from the LDF in central Kerala districts such as Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki, while Muslim voters largely opposed the front in the Malabar region. Setbacks in Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam corporations were attributed to tactical voting by opposition to defeat LDF candidates.
The CPM said Christians across denominations shifted support to the UDF, citing Ernakulam as a key example where the LDF faced unexpected losses in Kochi corporation and the district panchayat. This trend, it noted, also impacted neighbouring districts. The party linked the alienation to growing tensions between the Church and the general education department, particularly over demands by Church-run school managements for parity with a Supreme Court verdict favouring the NSS on reservation benefits for differently-abled persons in aided institutions.
General Education Minister V. Sivankutty’s warning to school managements against “pressuring” the government reportedly worsened relations, prompting Christian denominations to adopt a critical stance that was reflected at the polls, the CPM assessed. However, the party dismissed the CPI’s view that the Kerala Congress had weakened organisationally in Kottayam.
The CPM said this voting pattern was not evident in districts like Thrissur, Kannur, Kozhikode and Kasaragod. It also assessed that an informal alignment between Jamaat-e-Islami, IUML and the Congress helped consolidate Muslim votes for the UDF. At the same time, CPM state secretary M.V. Govindan rejected claims of Muslim desertion, pointing out that the LDF secured nearly 10 lakh votes in Malappuram, though party leaders admitted concern over the front’s failure to gain representation in the district panchayat.
The CPI, in its review, said Muslim consolidation against the LDF was intensified by the CPM’s reluctance to clearly distance itself from remarks by SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellappally Natesan, perceived as anti-Muslim, and fears that the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise could negatively affect the community. It also said higher voter turnout worked against the ruling front.
Both parties suspect coordinated cross-voting in Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam. Govindan claimed that in 41 wards won by the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram corporation, Congress candidates polled under 1,000 votes, indicating strategic voting. The CPI reported a similar trend in Kollam.
The CPI also felt that the lack of action against former TDB president A. Padmakumar created mistrust among believers. The CPM, however, dismissed this, with Govindan stating that action would follow only if a court verdict established guilt.